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Odds of each item Edit

The odds of getting a sample of each candy in a Box of Chocolates vary from 60% to 80% according to WoWhead. The odds of getting a sample of the Empty Wrapper in a Box of Chocolates is 30% according to WoWhead. (I rounded the numbers to the closest 10%.)

The odds of getting a sample of an item

= 1 - the odds of not getting a sample of the item
= 1 - (( 1 - odds of getting the item on each random selection ) ^ number of selections )

So ...

1 - odds of getting a sample of an item = (( 1 - odds of getting the item on each random selection ) ^ 6 )

( 1 - odds of getting a sample of an item ) ^ (1/6) = 1 - odds of getting the item on each random selection

or ...

odds of getting the item on each random selection = 1 - (( 1 - odds of getting a sample of an item ) ^ (1/6))

For the most common chocolate (80% odds of getting one in the box):

1 - (( 100% - 80% ) ^ (1/6)) = 1 - ( 20% ^ (1/6)) = 100% - 76% = 24%

For the least common chocolate (60% odds of getting one in the box):

1 - (( 100% - 70% ) ^ (1/6)) = 1 - ( 30% ^ (1/6)) = 100% - 82% = 18%

For the Empty Wrapper (30% odds of getting one in the box):

1 - (( 100% - 30% ) ^ (1/6)) = 1 - ( 70% ^ (1/6)) = 100% - 94% = 6%

This seems to match up with the small sample of boxes I've opened. Madkaugh (talk) 23:33, 12 February 2009 (UTC)

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